History of US-Soviet Nuclear Arms Race

1945-1950: US nuclear monopoly

1950-1960: Bomber race; development of H-bomb; "massive retaliation" strategy of US

1960-1970: Missile race; end of atmospheric testing and beginning arms control talks after 1962; development of SLBMs

1970-1975: SALT I; ABM treaty formalizes mutual deterrence systemdevelopment of MIRVs

1975-1985: Arms control effort suspended; Soviets achieve approximate parity with USA; US develop cruise missiles and propose SDI

1985-1990: Gorbachev arms control period; INF treaty

1991+ Collapse of USSR; unilateral disarmament measures

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Deterrence Theory Vocabulary

nuclear fission ("A-bomb") - power measured in kilotons

nuclear fusion ("H-bomb") - power measured in megatons

mutual assured destruction (MAD) ["balance of terror"]

second strike capability: the ability to absorb a first strike by an opponent with sufficient survival retaliatory capability to inflict "unacceptable damage" on that opponent

first strike capability: the ability to attack an opponent with sufficient force that the opponent cannot inflict unacceptable damage in a retaliatory attack

counterforce targeting: attack military assets

countervalue targeting: attack cities and industrial capacity

nuclear triad:

ICBM : Intercontinental ballistic missile

SLBM: Submarine launched ballistic missile

bombers (mostly B-52s; some B-1 and B-2)

Paradoxes of Nuclear Deterrence

1. You never know when deterrence is working, only when it has failed.

2. If you believe in deterrence, you target your opponent's civilians, not the military

3. If your opponent believes in deterrence, then your attempts to protect your civilians will increase the likelihood of war, and therefore decrease their protection.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS STATES

10,000+

• USA
• Russia

1000+

• China

100+

• Great Britain
• France

10+

• India -- tested "peaceful nuclear device" in 1974; tested "weapon" in May, 1998
• Israel -- assumed to have 50-100 weapons
• Pakistan -- probably has material for 10+ weapons

Importing equipment for nuclear weapons programs

• Iraq -- UN dismantled most of the program as part of agreement ending Desert Storm
• Iran
• North Korea

Formally ended nuclear weapons programs or weapons

• South Africa -- dismantled program before shifting political system to majority rule
• Brazil
• Argentina
• Ukraine (gave up control of nuclear weapons; kept control of natural gas pipeline)
• Belarus
• Khazakstan

Future of Nuclear Proliferation

Factors Favoring

• Technology is well-understood and readily available
• Civilian nuclear power programs
• Weapons may be available for sale from the former Soviet Union
• Major powers have not disarmed
• Regional nuclear arms races in Middle East, East Asia
• Possibly still some prestige value in some states, e.g. Libya, North Korea

Factors Opposing

• Nuclear weapons have not been used in war since 1945, so the military utility is unclear
• Strategic utility of a small number of nuclear weapons is unclear given the preponderance of power and delivery systems held by Russia and the USA
• Fear of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of domestic opposition when a government changes (South Africa)
• Nonproliferation regime has largely been followed by states